The silver lining to England’s failure to qualify for the European Championship was that it reduced the risk of injury to a United squad that draws more on the talents of the home countries than most others in the Premiership.

It’s an exaggeration to say that one money-spinning pre-season visit to Africa has undermined all of the competitive advantage that Steve McLaren so generously bestowed on us but it’s certainly looking poor value for the £1.5M that United reputedly earned from the Nigeria-based dress rehearsal for the Charity Shield.

In case you hadn’t heard, Wayne Rooney is the latest to join a lengthy list of absentees, having picked up a nasty (non-malarian) virus while in Nigeria. I’m now worried about the health of JW, not to mention the journalist Wayne allegedly spat at.

It does seem extraordinary that United are so sophisticated in their approach to the health of their players that they have their own laboratory at Carrington but no one thought to say ‘Hey! Isn’t there the danger that some of us might pick up a nasty bug if we go to West Africa?’

So Rooney is out, and we already know about Ronaldo. Who else is unavailable? Well here’s the full list:

Rooney - Virus
Ronaldo - Ankle
Nani - Suspended (2 games)
Anderson - Olympics
Saha - Knee
Park - Knee
Hargreaves - Tendinitis
(Carrick - Virus)
(Neville - calf strain)

Carrick was struck down by the same virus as Rooney but seems to have recovered enough to be back in training and Sir Alex reckons he’s well enough to take some part in the traditional curtain-raiser (I love that expression). Neville, meanwhile, is apparently recovered from a recent calf strain but has hardly played for a year and a half.

All this puts us in an interesting position for the Charity Shield. What kind of team will we actually be able to field, given that at least 5 of the 14 players who took part in the CL final in Moscow are unavailable?

Here’s my best guess.

Just My Best Guess

I guess the big headline there is Campbell’s inclusion. It’s the logical choice. If he doesn’t play in these circumstances when will he play? Still I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the bench. Ferguson is notoriously reticent when it comes to home-grown strikers (even Giuseppe Rossi struggled for games) and if he can squeeze another player into midfield (JOS, most likely) then Tevez may well be ploughing a lone furrow.

Of course, there are lots of other permutations. Carrick may not be well enough to start, in which case life gets more interesting. From the meagre stocks left at his disposal again O’Shea would be his instinctive choice to deputise but it would be nice to see Possebon given a chance to show what he can do at this level.

A more creative solution might be to play O’Shea at left back with Evra pushed forward on to the left wing and Giggs operating down the right, as he has done occasionally throughout his career. You could also say the same about Lee Martin (the last of the “next David Beckham”s following Eagles’ departure) as Campbell. If he doesn’t play in these circumstances then when?

I suppose we should be grateful that the defence is miraculously untouched, thus far. In any case, Portsmouth are welcome to the Charity Shield. 3 points against Newcastle are a far more significant prize. So just cross your fingers and hope that the laboratory at Carrington comes up with something to get Rooney up-and-about again.

Not normally the sort of thing that UV reports, I’ll grant you, but bear with me. Having enjoyed the evening and being a man of weighty parental responsibilities, I passed up the offer of ‘one for the road’ with JW and HJD and headed off home, leaving them to their expensive nightcaps at the Charlotte Street Hotel. Half an hour later I get a call from JW to let me know that he’s just had a cosy little chat and a photograph with a celebrity. Guess who? No, not Tessa Sanderson as it turns out but Wayne Rooney.

Wayne Bloody Rooney! To say I was a ‘bit’ disappointed is like saying Stephen Gerrard’s hairline is a ‘bit’ odd. Now I don’t know what JW said to our Wayne but whatever it was was enough to send him into a rage with anyone with a camera!

What Wayne may have looked like to JW
Picture from birdbath on Flickr

Anyway, I guess this kind of report goes with the territory for Rooney, which is a great shame. I just pray we don’t get too much of it this year, though. I think this will be a definitive season in Rooney’s United career. Whether Ronaldo can be persuaded to stick around for another season or not, United relied on the Portugeezer’s goals heavily last year and neither his presence nor his commitment can be taken for granted in the future. Wayne, on the other hand, you feel may be with United for life now.

I’m a long-standing defender of Rooney. Many last year were calling for him to be dropped but even when Rooney is having a truly terrible game he still manages to ocupy the attentions of two defenders. Also, like Tevez, with his work rate he raises the game for the rest of the team (yes, I mean you, Rio). I have no doubt as to his value to the club and think he was worth every penny of the £30M he cost us.

However, he should score goals. I know he lead the charts for English players in terms of goals (and assists) last season but he has, in all honesty, not produced what we expected. Thinking back to Portugal 2004 or his debut against Fenerbahçe he was a force of nature in the same way as Tyson or Nadal. He looked unstoppable. He doesn’t look that way any more.

As JW said (although not I suspect to the Wayne) ‘My gripe is that he doesn’t score enough goals — overelaborates, decorates matches with sumptious, defender-outwitting first touch and control, but then can’t provide the finish such skill deserves.’

I just hope that Fergie has a word with Wayne to say, ‘Stop being so bloody selfless. Stop setting Ronaldo up with goals. Stop tracking back to our own 18 yard box (we have Owen to do this for us these days). Just concentrate on blasting that ball at the goal. Feel free to rip the goalies head off with it.’

So come on Wayne. Time to step up. ‘Perfect Moment’ time, as Martine McCutcheon might have said.

Confirmation arrived today with The Star picking up the ludicrous story, previously pedalled by 4thegame, that Thierry Henry could be the subject of a bid from United. The problem with these stories is that there is just enough sense in them for you to roll them around in your mind (Along the lines of “I suppose Manchester United could do with a new striker… and I guess that Thierry Henry is actually a striker so, well, maybe… NO! What am I thinking???). Then before you know it your lunch hour has passed and you haven’t even updated your status on facebook.

So I’m going to have a go this game. Who’s the striker we’re least likely to sign? Torres? Van Nistelrooy? Drogba? No, I’ve got it… Adebayor. Why not? If Henry’s on the list then why not Emmanuel too? There is no way that Wenger would sell him to us. No one has even suggested that we might be interested in him and the player probably wouldn’t come even if we were. It’s really really not going to happen.

Picture of Adebayor from Wonker on Flickr

So that’s it. Adebayor to United! A completely unsubstantiated UnitedViews exclusive! You heard this lie here first!!

Mind you, once you start to think about it…

After the Fleet Street’s traditional pursuit of linking United with absolutely everyone on the grounds that some of it must be true, it’s all starting to go a bit quiet. In fact, even the outlandish lies gossip that usually fuels everyone’s favourite page on the BBC seem to be drying up.

We seem to have come full circle with the laughable Thierry Henry story but it’s really just fulfilling the barrel-scraping role that stories about Paddy Viera and little Michael Owen have fulfilled in the past - i.e. a famous name to a famous club with no requirement for a genuine connection between the two.

Thierry Henry - probably not looking to escape Barcelona, actually (Image from mediafury on Flickr)

It does seem that in reality all our eggs are now firmly in the one basket and with Spurs apparently happy to take a £5M hit to sell Dimitar abroad rather than send him up to Old Trafford that particular basket is looking none too stable (although much depends on Berbatov’s own preferences).

So, when was the last time United signed absolutely no one at all? Well… I don’t actually know…sorry. Anyone out there able to tell me? I do know that in 2000 we only signed Fabien Barthez. I guess that could be a good sign, given that we went on to win the league by 10 points in spite of losing the last 3 games of the season (I seem to remember Luke Chadwick featuring a lot…).

However, what followed that season was a loss of momentum that it arguably took Ferguson until 2006/7 to regain. Dangerously, and for the first time ever, Ferguson seemed happy with his squad and didn’t look to improve from a position of strength.

Now, this year we know we need a striker. Whatever the outcome of Ronaldo’s dalliance with Real, we can’t expect him to replicate the scoring feats of last season. It’s just not realistic.

So there are two possibilities: either United know something we don’t (look at how they pulled off the Anderson/Nani double swoop last year); or… Frazier Campbell and Manucho can expect to be getting some quality time with the first team this season.

Image by gordonflood.com on Flickr

I don’t believe that Ferguson has made his mind up one way or another on a departure this year. I do believe, however, that he is considering it more seriously than at any time since he doubled back on retirement plans in 2002. He made it very clear after reversing that decision that he wouldn’t make the mistake of letting people know he was going before he went next time around. Back then Ferguson was a dead man walking with much of the respect he had previously commanded within the club disgracefully evaporating as the season wore on (Stand up Mikael Silvestre). This time When it happens it will come as a surprise to the media, his squad and quite possibly David Gill.

Now this year, at the age of 66, he said in the Sky interview with an apparently comatose David Frost that he will carry on for another 2 or 3 years. It won’t be 3 years. If he left it until 2011 then everyone would know it was his last season and the problems of 2001/2 would be visited on him once more. I guess he could say he’d changed his mind again but I’m not sure anyone would buy that at the age of 68. So, this season or next season will be his last, of that much I’m sure.

Whether he goes this year will depend on the success or otherwise of the campaign. If he could repeat last year’s achievements and defend both league and Champion’s League (an enormously difficult task) then I’m sure he’ll go at the end of the season. He’ll have matched Liverpool’s haul of 18 League titles and have 3 European Cups to his name putting him up there next to Bob Paisley (whose sides overcame the might of Borussia Mönchengladbach, Club Brugge and… all right Real Madrid to win the trophy).

It is, of course, a nearly impossible task to repeat the success of 2007/8 but I think Fergie feels they can do it… as long as he can hang on to Ronaldo for one more year. And that is exactly what I think he will have asked for from Ronaldo; one more year. He can’t afford to lose him this year and nor can the club afford the destabilising effect of Real Madrid’s attentions on an annual basis.

So one more year of Ronaldo, another league title, another Champions League title and a farewell to Fergie. Could be a busy year!

Of course, if he fails to win either or wins one title but not the other I can see Fergie being with us for another year. I’m sure he wouldn’t want to miss out on the opportunity to knock Liverpool right off both their perches.

None of this should not be mistaken as a call for Fergie to go. Even back in 2005/6 when he seemed to have lost touch with the demands of modern football and a number of sites (especially the much missed UnitedRant) were calling for his head I felt he had given too much of himself to the club to deserve to be cast aside without another chance. I never want to be in the position of telling my son about United’s greatest ever manager (a debate for another day) and explaining how I was one of those who called for him to be sacked.

So where do things go from here? Will United sue Spurs? No. I doubt it very much. Spurs are too big a club to fall out with. They are too useful both as suppliers and potential purchasers of players. I’m sure that between then them the two clubs will patch things up, blaming the media (always a safe Aunt Sally) in the process.

Will United still want to buy Berbatov?

Yep. In fact they’re in real danger of having all their eggs in one basket on this one. Do we have any Plan B? I don’t think so.

Will Spurs still sell us the player?

Yes. They need the money. I’ve seen Spurs supporting banging on on other sites about how United are the ones in debt and Spurs are in the black. Therefore United have less money than Spurs. Well, no, actually. How much you can afford to invest in the business relates to how much money you can expect to get back. United’s turnover last year was £212M; Spurs’ was £103M. Perhaps more significant than turnover is profit. Well for the calendar year 2007, Spurs made a pre-tax profit a shade under £19.7M. They made all that money in the first half of the year, however. In the second half, they made a small loss (source: http://www.footballeconomy.com/archive/archive_2008_mar_22.htm). In the same year, United turned a profit of £42.3M (source: http://www.finfacts.ie/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1012300.shtml).

United can expect turnover to be up again in 2008 following the EPL/Champions’ League double. Profit will obviously be determined by outlay. Spurs’ turnover may well be up as well following their run to Carling Cup victory (although they faded badly in the league) but the gap will be greater this year than last, I’m sure.

In other words, if Spurs want to improve their squad next year with the likes of Bentley and Pavlyuchenko then they do need to sell first. They will sell us Berbatov, unless someone outbids us.

“The behaviour of both clubs has been disgraceful. We told both clubs very early on that we had no interest in selling Robbie or Dimitar, respectively, and that they should refrain from pursuing the player.”

Image from Mtl_Shag on Flickr

What seems to have tipped him over the edge is Ferguson’s interview with the Sun (since when did Fergie do exclusives with the Sun?) in which he says “Berbatov has been impressive for a long time and he would be a great addition to our attack” as well as intimating that although their offer had been turned down they fully expected a positive outcome.

As Levy points out, “It is unbelievably hypocritical given his comments in respect of Cristiano Ronaldo and Real Madrid.” Well, I’m not sure exactly which comments hes referring to but we know Fergie’s been hacked off by the way Real have behaved and we know that United have themselves reported Real to UEFA.

So Levy’s right, isn’t he? Fergies comments about Berbatov are just the same as Real’s pursuit of Cristiano Ronaldo through the papers. Well, from Fergie’s point of view there are probably a few subtle differences: for one thing, he hasnt been tub-thumping, suggesting it would be an honour for Spurs nor has he been suggesting that the problem lies between Berbatov and Spurs and that he is an innocent bystander. More significantly, United have actually made an offer for Berbatov. It’s been rejected but it’s an offer! As far as Fergie is concerned he’s played it by the book. It may be his own book filled with is own rules but he’s stuck by it rigidly.

So is there any difference? Yes. The greatest difference in the situation relates to the would-be sellers not the buyers. Both have reported the aggressors to the toothless football authorities, who have done/will do precisely nothing about it. Both clubs knew this when they filed the reports, so why bother? For very different reasons.

United wanted to fire a shot across Real’s bows. ‘We know what you’re doing and there’s a limit to how much we’ll stand for.’ If it makes the slightest difference to Real’s behaviour, makes them a scintilla less brazen in their advances then it’s worth it.

Spurs have filed the report purely and simply to make it look like their putting up a struggle, to keep the fans happy, to keep those two horrible words ‘Feeder Club’ at bay… just before they sell the players anyway. How can we know this? Two reasons…

Firstly, Spurs have previous. They told everyone who would listen that Carrick wasn’t for sale. As Jol said at the time, “We are building something here and I can’t do without him. I told the chairman I want to keep him and the board don’t want to sell him. He’s got a contract for two years and that’s it.” That would be the same chairman who sold Carrick to United 6 weeks later.

And secondly, Levy has said he’s going to sell both players, virtually sent them down Oxford Street with signs on sticks saying ‘Player Sale->’ in the very same statement in which he condemns their pursuants.

“However, when a player’s head is turned and their commitment is absent, particularly when they occupy key positions such as that of striker, they become a negative influence in a team dressing room in which they were once a positive addition and influence.” Now you just don’t say that about players you expect to be at the club next year.

So, in short, it’s all a bit of a charade. Levy is looking to re-coup some of the £100M+ he’s lashed out on players in the last few transfer windows but rather than come clean with Spurs fans he’s decided to cast Fergie and Benitez as the pantomime villains. I’d be surprised if Berbatov didn’t end up at United. Keane may or may not go to Anfield depending on how much money Rafa can raise with a sponsored beard trim or selling Xabi Alonso, whichever earns more.

Surely?

Anyway, JW has kindly stepped into the breach and come up with a set of predictions for the remaining fixtures. He’s usually pretty accurate with these things but let us know if you disagree with him…

Have you been doing your usual end-of-season results prediction stuff?

Based simply on United’s form so far this season, they should get 16 or 17 points from their remaining seven games, so 5-1-1 or 5-2-0 in terms of W-D-L over the seven matches. That would give us 89 or 90 points, versus a maximum 89 points for Chelsea and 88 points for Arsenal, which means we should win the title even if it’s only on goal difference from Chelsea.

It largely depends on the Chelsea and Arsenal games, of course, and my personal feeling is that we won’t lose either — we’ll beat Arsenal at OT and, given our record in the matches against the other Big Four clubs this season, should get a point at Stamford Bridge. But also given our record against the more modest sides this season, I can see a slip-up in a nominally more straightforward game, e.g. losing at Blackburn or Middlesbrough, or held at home by Villa or West Ham.

Chelsea and Arsenal also, of course, need to really put a run together to challenge us, something Chelsea might do but Arsenal seem unlikely to given the way their confidence has evaporated in recent weeks. But Chelsea will need to win pretty much every game, and they have some interesting away games at Everton and Man City.

Anyway, can’t believe how good we’re looking after the despair I felt after the home defeat to Cit-Eh. And amazing how Arsenal have nosedived in the wake of the 4-0 cup mauling at OT and the Eduardo injury.

my predictions — guess who ends up league champions?

……

Mar. 29-30

Man Utd 2-0 Aston Villa

Bolton 1-1 Arsenal

Chelsea 3-0 Middlesbrough

……

Apr. 5-6

Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool

Man City 0-2 Chelsea

Middlesbrough 1-3 Man Utd

……

Apr. 12/13/14

Man Utd 2-0 Arsenal

Chelsea 5-1 Wigan

……

Apr. 19

Arsenal 3-0 Reading

Blackburn 1-0 Man Utd

Everton 2-2 Chelsea

……

Apr. 26

Chelsea 1-1 Man Utd

Apr. 28

Derby 0-4 Arsenal

……

May 3

Arsenal 0-0 Everton

Man Utd 4-0 West Ham

Newcastle 1-3 Chelsea

……

May 11

Chelsea 2-0 Bolton

Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal

Wigan 1-2 Man Utd

Image from Maximus1978 on Flickr

I’m pleased we can’t face an English team until the final but more than a little concerned at the prospect of Barcelona in the semis. That’s getting ahead of myself, though. The plum tie is, without doubt, the Arsenal - Liverpool match up. It’s always nice to see your rivals knocking lumps out of each other, isn’t it?

Picture of United’s Champions League medals from Edwin.11 on Flickr

OK. We’ve got 7 teams to choose from. There’s no protection from facing teams from your own country. So we could draw any of the following:

Arsenal
Barcelona
Chelsea
Fenerbahçe
Liverpool
Roma
Schalke 04

Who do we fancy for our quarter-final opponents, then? Let me know in the comments box…